Friday, November 11, 2016

Clinton fans, the polls were right all along. Sanders would have won.

From a post I wrote shortly before the election:
This would've been a boring election if the Democratic establishment hadn't been committed to nominating another neoliberal. In May, Sanders was polling with the general public at 10 points over Trump.
That wasn't a fluke. In the many polls of public opinion taken from July 2015 to May 2016, only six showed Trump having an advantage and only one showed them in a tie.
Compare that with Clinton. Currently, she has a 1.8% advantage in the aggregated polls at RealClearPolitics, so she's the safer bet but not a sure bet. Over the same period that Sanders stayed well ahead of Trump, Clinton was only a point or two ahead on average, with 29 polls showing her losing and 13 in a tie.
You can check that for yourself: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Sanders

Here's a clip of Keith Ellison saying that Trump could win, only to have the usual talking heads laugh at him:

From June, 2016: Why does Sanders do better than Clinton against Trump? | MSNBC:
...those who would vote for Sanders but not Clinton against Trump are evenly split when it comes to party identification – 35 percent identify as Republicans, 33 percent as Independents and 31 percent as Democrats. This is not particularly good news for Clinton as more than two-thirds of those who would support Sanders but not Clinton do not identify as Democrats.
And here are a few more people who looked at what we've known all along and pointed out that we knew it all along:

If anyone doubts Bernie Sanders would've crushed Trump, show them this

Hillary Clinton lost. Bernie Sanders could have won. - The Washington Post

Polls Showed Sanders Had a Better Shot of Beating Trump–but Pundits Told You to Ignore Them | FAIR

ETA: New Pre-Election Poll Suggests Bernie Sanders Could Have Trounced Donald Trump | The Huffington Post: "The national survey of more than 1,600 registered voters, conducted by Gravis Marketing two days before the general election, found that Sanders would have received 56 percent of the vote while Trump would have won 44 percent. The poll was commissioned and financed by outgoing Florida Congressman Alan Grayson, a Democrat who endorsed Sanders in the presidential primary."

Why Sanders defeats Trump, but Trump defeats Clinton | TheHill

The Real Story Of 2016 | FiveThirtyEight:
Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012.
Trump pollster: Sanders would have won general election | TheHill 

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